The El Niño weather phenomenon that forecasters had anticipated for so long will begin in the next four to eight weeks. It will, however, be a weak one, much to the chagrin of drought-stricken California.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said the El Niño, which was first announced early this year, would be happening in a month or two. Forecasters expect it to continue until into spring. But while forecasters agree there is a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño happening between November 2014 to January 2015, it will “likely remain weak … throughout its duration.”

An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures hit more than 0.5 degrees Celsius during the long term average. Presently, sea surface temperatures are only up by 0.3 degrees.

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